Políticas y Dilema de Alineamiento: Las causas del hedging en la competencia entre Estados Unidos y China en la infraestructura digital de América Latina
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.69895/yj5yv823Palabras clave:
Rivalidad entre Potencias, Balance de Amenazas, Weaponized Interdependence, 5G, Centros de Datos, Economía Política InternacionalResumen
¿Qué impulsa a los estados a revelar sus estrategias de alineamiento durante la competencia entre potencias? Basándonos en la teoría del balance de amenazas y la literatura sobre “hedging”, argumentamos que el desencadenante principal no es el ascenso de una potencia ni la rivalidad entre potencias, sino las Políticas Negativas de Alineamiento (NAS): el uso de presión económica o de seguridad por parte de una potencia para limitar la relación de un tercer estado con la potencia rival. Sostenemos que el NAS crea un Dilema de Alineamiento e impulsa a los estados a manifestar sus posiciones. Para probar esto, comparamos dos sectores en Brasil, Chile y México con una creciente presencia china: antenas 5G/4G y centros de datos. Donde estuvo presente el NAS, los países se alinearon explícitamente. Donde no estuvo presente, el hedging —si existió— permaneció pasivo u oculto. Nuestro articulo intenta contribuir a los debates sobre las causas del hedging al especificar un mecanismo que induce a los estados hacia estrategias activas de alineamiento. Pero esto plantea un problema adicional que denominamos Alineamiento Schrödinger: una condición en la que no está claro si un estado está siguiendo una estrategia de alineamiento oculta o ninguna estrategia en absoluto.
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Derechos de autor 2025 Joaquín Maquieira Alonzo, Cuihong Cai, Brice Tseen Fu Lee (Author)
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